The Increasingly Popular Anecdotal Fallacy

So often these days I encounter people who want to argue by anecdote. Haven't they ever read Aristotle! Anecdotes can never prove a case, they can only disprove an "always" or "never" hypothesis. Let me explain.

If I say that television has had the overall tendency to make people stupider, less physically active, less creative, less aware of their surroundings, less able to read social cues and respond appropriately, more passive, more prone to manipulation, more withdrawn and isolated, less able to distinguish reality from fantasy, and less able to support their opinions with reasoned arguments,  you do not disprove my statement by telling me that you watch a lot of TV yet are intelligent, jog two miles every day, wrote a poem last night, are intensely aware of the color scheme in your wallpaper, know when your spouse is getting angry by the way his fingers curl up, have never once in your life been manipulated, withdrawn, or isolated, are able to tell a real cowboy from a fake one on TV, and are currently supporting your opinion with a reasoned argument. Even if your examples proved that you were a superior human being despite excessive TV watching, it only tells me about you. My hypothesis was not about you but about a general tendency. If I had said that TV always has these effects on people, then, yes, you providing one sound example would disprove my theory. For example, if you could find one human being who is immortal, it would disprove this classic deductive argument: All men are mortal. Socrates is a man. Therefore, Socrates is mortal.

Here are a few more examples of the folly of anecdotal reasoning:

* I told a nurse that I was considering islet transplantation to rid myself of diabetes. She was horrified. She said that she had had a patient who had islet transplant and was doing worse than before transplantation. I asked her how many patients she had known who had had the procedure. Only that one, she said. Then I asked how long ago the patient had undergone islet transplant, and she said, "Five years ago." Now why would I base my decision on some woman who I don't know anything about--what shape she was in prior to transplant, how heavy she was, how well she follows a sensible diet, how much she exercises, how old she is, etc.--who had the procedure a half decade ago, during which time advances in technique have occurred.

* Einstein flunked math, yet he became the world's most brilliant theoretical physicist, a profession that requires a high level of mathematical acumen. Therefore, if you want to be a theoretical physicist of world-class standing, flunking math is the path you need to take.

* Studies say that smoking causes lung cancer, but my uncle Albert smoked a pack of cigarettes a day from the time he turned 13 until the day he died at 93. He never developed lung cancer, and as I recall, he never so much as caught a cold. So smoking really isn't bad for your health.

* Every mother tells her child that he should look both ways before crossing a street. I always hated it when my mother told me to do that. Such a worry wart she was! I make a point of closing my eyes when I cross a street. I've been doing this for at least 15 years, and I haven't been hit yet. It's stupid advice, and I say, "Close your eyes. You'll be just fine."

Why are so many people relying so heavily on anecdotes to support their opinions? I've got two theories:

* Our educational system at best gives lip service to critical thinking. It's something tacked on at the end of the year after all the memorization and standardized tests have been taken care of. Critical thinking should be a part of every lesson, but it's not because the school system is aiming at turning out unthinking, unquestioning robots who will fit into cubicle jobs that require no critical thinking.

I saw this at the college level, which is one of the major reasons why I am so glad I am no longer a part of that travesty. The university has become as Mickey Mouse as grade school with quantification and standardization the mantra, which means a dumbing down of material and no room for true cultivation of critical thinking.

* We are an extremely self-absorbed society. People argue from anecdotes because they feel the world and truth revolve around their own personal experience. If they can smoke and haven't developed lung cancer, then smoking is safe. If they can watch lots of TV and still have what they consider an engaged life, then TV is harmless.

Now this is not to say that personal experience is not valid. It's just that it is just that--personal. It does not speak for everyone.

So, folks, if you don't know how to support your opinions, please enroll in an introductory logic class at your local community college. Aristotle came up with 13 fallacies. I've only discussed one here.

Emotional Release

A few times since surgery, I have been close to tears, but critical mass was not reached and no tears fell. Yesterday morning while putzing around the apartment, medieval carols playing on the boom box, I suddenly was overcome with emotion. What emotion it was, I can't really say. It certainly wasn't sadness, but I can't say it was joy either. It was as if a backlog of all sorts of feelings came rushing forth in physical form without accompanying emotion.

The sensation was so powerful that, weeping, I dropped to my knees in front of the Christmas tree, which was already lit up. As tears streamed down my face, I said my thanks aloud for how very fortunate I am to have received a kidney. Most people are dead before they reach five years on dialysis, and I was just shy of two years before I received one. The vast majority of people die before a kidney is offered.

I know how fortunate I am to have had so many people pulling for me. Even if you don't believe in God or some universal force, you have to realize that maybe a hundred people concentrating their thoughts, their energy, and their visualizations on my healing is powerful. The concentrated intention of one person is a force to reckon with, but if you multiply that a hundredfold, you've got something unstoppable. I am so grateful for this assistance.

After about five minutes of weeping, I got up and resumed my putzing. That release was cleansing and complete. No need to dwell on it or overanalyze it. It simply was for five minutes, and then it was gone without leaving any residue.

Post-op Miscellany

A few observations and experiences that don't necessarily warrant individual posts:

* In the week following surgery, I had a lot of dark dreams. I hesitate to call them nightmares because I wasn't scared, but their content was potentially frightening. Shadowy presences, demons, malevolent entities, darkened rooms. Other dreams were lucid, perhaps even astral travel. They were like waking life with no sudden shifts from venue to venue.

On reflection, this makes sense that the subconscious should be stirred up following surgery. The surgeons cut deep into my physical core, and so the core of my psyche would also be disrupted. Gunk like blood, tissue, and fluids drained from the body post-op, so no doubt psychic gunk also was released. I don't interpret this as unacknowledged fears on my part, as I am really good at soul-searching, and not a whole lot about my inner workings escapes my scrutiny and contemplation. I was very calm going into surgery, prepared for wherever it took me, even into death. Once you reconcile with the prospect of death, you can face just about anything.

* I have managed the pain exceedingly well. Post-op I had morphine only twice, one dose a half dose, and one Tylenol. Then nothing until I got home. One day the pain was so bad I took two Tylenol. Other than those four times, I have had nothing. The incisions are generally on the level of discomfort, not pain, so there isn't really any justification for pain meds, which I feel are more trouble than they're worth.

* I started driving one day shy of two weeks post-op. Though six weeks is the recommended resumption of driving, I didn't see any reason why I should wait that long, since I wasn't taking pain meds and didn't feel impaired.

* Have been very careful about staying away from people with colds. Diana had invited me over to her mom's house for Christmas, but then called today to tell me she was coming down with something. I thought it best to stay home with Rasputin. Pinky is doing so well that I don't want to do anything to disturb her.

I canceled the annual holiday tradition of caroling for brandy this year in order to avoid infections. Sure missed caroling from one stranger's door to another and brightening the hearts of many and confusing and/or embarrassing a few others. To view past years' posts on caroling for brandy, see 2009, 2008, and 2007.http://heidisheart.blogspot.com/2007/12/caroling-in-carol-park.html

* Before surgery, I had bought a foot-high living tree from the market because I didn't know how long I'd be in the hospital. When I got home only four days following surgery, I really wanted a tree, and damn if we didn't get the best tree we've ever had. Enough room to put up all the ornaments.

* Pictured here with snowflake sunglasses--Elton John, step aside!--and a bird whistle from Georgette, a pixie of a gal who lives in Florida and each birthday and Christmas sends me gifts that make me giggle. Also a cashmere scarf from my neighbor Annie. I've always loved cashmere but have never owned any until now. A generous gift.