Obama's "Troop Withdrawal" is Like a Gambler's "Win"

Obama announced last night that he's bringing troops home from Afghanistan. He and his handlers are hoping that's all the information that will register with most Americans. He's banking on the fact that we're not much good at math.

If we were more gifted at addition and subtraction, we might note that there were roughly 70,000 troops in Afghanistan when Obama took office. He implemented a "surge" of 30,000 troops, bringing the total to about 100,000. Now he's bring 10,000 home. That leaves some 90,000, plus untold numbers of "contractors" (you remember Blackwater, don't you).

This makes me think of all the people I've spoken to after they've returned from gambling in Vegas. I have never heard a single one tell me that he or she lost money. Everyone always seems to win. Of course, upon further questioning, it becomes clear that they all experienced a net loss. They may have won $300 one day, but lost $300 each day for the next two days, for a net loss of $300.

This kind of magical thinking is what Obama is engaged in. He hopes that the general feeling Americans will come away with is "By God, the man is doing what he said he was going to do--pull troops out of Afghanistan. We've got to give him another four years so that he can finish the job." GROAN!

Perhaps a better analogy than the gambler is that of the dieter: Sally weighs 200 pounds and tells you she is going to lose weight, but first she wants to go on a binge, have one last hurrah before she buckles down and loses those extra pounds. So she pigs out and gains 30 pounds, then loses 10. At this point, she calls all her friends and tells them she's lost 10 pounds, isn't that fantastic!

Magical thinking. That's what runs Washington, D.C.